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Lincoln vs Carlisle — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carlisle
Carlisle
E. Hamilton 49'
L. Plange 19'
9/16/2023League OneLeague One · Round 8LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Lincoln53%
×Draw25%
Carlisle22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.63
Carlisle
0.94

Lincoln creates 73% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Carlisle
0.88

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Carlisle
1.76

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
78%
Lincoln or Carlisle
75%
Draw or Carlisle
47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
29%
Carlisle wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
80%
Lincoln 2+ goals
48%
Lincoln 3+ goals
22%
Carlisle 1+ goals
61%
Carlisle 2+ goals
24%
Carlisle 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
71%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Carlisle defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Carlisle attack 0.88 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more
53%
level
25%
Carlisle scores more
22%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. HamiltonLincolnLincoln · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
L. Plange↳ O. Moxon
46'
H. Adelakun← A. Smith
49'
E. Hamilton↳ R. Hackett
59'
Luke Plange
64'
J. Garner← S. Maguire
64'
T. Ablade← L. Plange
68'
D. Duffy← R. Hackett
72'
Joe Garner
75'
J. Brown← E. Bishop
77'
Dylan Duffy
77'
Jon Mellish
83'
Samuel Lavelle
89'
Owen Moxon

Possession

57%Lincoln

Shots

12Lincoln

Pass accuracy

53%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnCarlisle
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots14
2Corners1
9Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target6
7Off Target6
1Blocked2
4Inside Box5
8Outside Box9
Passing
57%Possession43%
478Total Passes362
345Accurate Passes230
72%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards5
3Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 1–1 Carlisle

Lincoln and Carlisle drew 1-1 in League One on September 16, 2023.

Goals: L. Plange (19'), E. Hamilton (49').

Lincoln controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.