Carlisle 1–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League #46

Carlisle

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

T. Charters 120+9' (pen)

B. Young 120+7' (pen)

C. Whelan 120+6' (pen)

J. Armer 120+3' (pen), 69'

C. McGrandles 120+8' (pen)

E. Bishop 120+5' (pen)

L. Fiorini 120+4' (pen)

C. Maguire 45'

11/30/2021

League #46 · 2nd RoundBrunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carlisle25%

×Draw21%

Lincoln54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.13

Carlisle

1.42

Lincoln

2.13

Lincoln creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

2.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Carlisle

1.50

Lincoln

2.00

allows per match

Carlisle

2.25

Lincoln

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

46%

Carlisle or Lincoln

79%

Draw or Lincoln

75%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

11%

Lincoln wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

76%

Carlisle 2+ goals

41%

Carlisle 3+ goals

17%

Lincoln 1+ goals

88%

Lincoln 2+ goals

63%

Lincoln 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

32%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Lincoln away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.50 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lincoln attack 2.00 + Carlisle defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Carlisle scores more

25%

level

21%

Lincoln scores more

54%

Lincoln at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

H. Adelakun

Lincoln · M

8.2

Match Events

45'

C. Maguire↳ H. Adelakun

46'

B. Young← T. Abrahams

55'

Jon Mellish

55'

Hakeeb Adelakun

63'

T. Charters← J. Gibson

63'

M. Mampala← S. Fishburn

69'

J. Robson← C. Bramall

69'

J. Armer↳ M. Mampala

78'

E. Bishop← M. Sanders

85'

85'

90+2'

90+1'

120+1'

J. MellishMissed penalty

120+2'

C. MaguireMissed penalty

120+3'

J. ArmerPenalty

120+4'

L. FioriniPenalty

120+5'

E. BishopPenalty

120+6'

C. WhelanPenalty

120+7'

B. YoungPenalty

120+8'

C. McGrandlesPenalty

120+9'

T. ChartersPenalty

120+10'

L. MontsmaMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleLincoln

Overview

30%Possession70%

8Total Shots18

3Corners15

6Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots18

4On Target6

2Off Target7

2Blocked5

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box10

Passing

30%Possession70%

279Total Passes658

198Accurate Passes574

71%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5

League #46: Carlisle 1–1 Lincoln

Carlisle and Lincoln drew 1-1 in League #46 on November 30, 2021.

Goals: C. Maguire (45'), J. Armer (69', 120+3' pen), L. Fiorini (120+4' pen), E. Bishop (120+5' pen), C. Whelan (120+6' pen), B. Young (120+7' pen), C. McGrandles (120+8' pen), T. Charters (120+9' pen).

Lincoln controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle, Cumbria.

Carlisle vs Lincoln — League #46 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #46: Carlisle 1–1 Lincoln