Lincoln 3–0 Bradford: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bradford

B. House 86'

J. Moylan 41'

F. Draper 7'

1/27/2026

League One · Round 29LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln47%

×Draw24%

Bradford28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.21

Lincoln

1.64

Bradford

1.21

Lincoln creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

1.07

1.35

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Lincoln

1.94

Bradford

1.07

allows per match

Lincoln

1.35

Bradford

1.34

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.46scores more

Bradford-0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

72%

Lincoln or Bradford

76%

Draw or Bradford

53%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

25%

Bradford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

81%

Lincoln 2+ goals

49%

Lincoln 3+ goals

23%

Bradford 1+ goals

70%

Bradford 2+ goals

34%

Bradford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

63%

Bradford (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.35 · 10 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.94 + Bradford defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bradford attack 1.07 + Lincoln defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lincoln scores more

47%

level

24%

Bradford scores more

28%

Lincoln at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Street

Lincoln · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

F. Draper↳ R. Hackett-Fairchild

41'

J. Moylan↳ R. Street

43'

Matthew Pennington

46'

C. Kavanagh← T. Wright

52'

Adam Reach

69'

J. Neufville← H. Ashby

69'

A. Baldwin← M. Pennington

69'

J. White← T. Leigh

77'

D. Jefferies← R. Hackett-Fairchild

77'

B. House← J. Moylan

86'

B. House↳ T. Hamer

90'

R. Towler← A. Reach

90'

T. Bayliss← I. Varfolomeev

90'

A. Lloyd← F. Draper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnBradford

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots2

5Corners1

8Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots2

8On Target1

6Off Target1

4Blocked0

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

342Total Passes336

242Accurate Passes229

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2