Bradford 0–0 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Bradford

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lincoln

10/28/2025

League One · Round 12Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bradford42%

×Draw27%

Lincoln31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.14

Bradford

1.38

Lincoln

1.14

Bradford creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.32

0.96

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bradford

1.50

Lincoln

1.32

allows per match

Bradford

0.96

Lincoln

1.25

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less

Lincoln+0.51scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

69%

Bradford or Lincoln

73%

Draw or Lincoln

58%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

20%

Lincoln wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

75%

Bradford 2+ goals

40%

Bradford 3+ goals

16%

Lincoln 1+ goals

68%

Lincoln 2+ goals

32%

Lincoln 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

58%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.96 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.50 + Lincoln defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lincoln attack 1.32 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bradford scores more

42%

level

27%

Lincoln scores more

31%

Bradford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

N. Byrne

Bradford · D

8.3

Match Events

38'

Jenson Metcalfe

46'

A. Cook← W. Swan

59'

R. Towler← R. Street

71'

T. Wright← C. Kavanagh

71'

T. Leigh← J. Metcalfe

71'

F. Draper← J. Collins

72'

B. Halliday← J. Neufville

76'

Max Power

85'

F. Okoronkwo← J. Obikwu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordLincoln

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots15

2Corners2

14Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots15

3On Target4

8Off Target9

5Blocked2

9Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

397Total Passes393

270Accurate Passes275

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards0