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Lincoln vs Birmingham — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
B. Cadamarteri 1'
K. Anderson 79', 14'
W. Willumsson 52'
10/19/2024League OneLeague One · Round 12LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lincoln34%
×Draw27%
Birmingham39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.18
Birmingham
1.30

Birmingham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Birmingham
1.61

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Birmingham
0.87

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
61%
Lincoln or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
66%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
14%
Birmingham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
69%
Lincoln 2+ goals
33%
Lincoln 3+ goals
12%
Birmingham 1+ goals
73%
Birmingham 2+ goals
37%
Birmingham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
46%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.18

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lincoln scores more
34%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
39%

Birmingham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
K. AndersonBirminghamBirmingham · M
8.7

Match Events

1'
B. Cadamarteri
14'
K. Anderson↳ A. May
47'
Christoph Klarer
51'
Alex Cochrane
52'
W. Willumsson↳ A. May
55'
A. Yokoyama← E. Hansson
59'
F. Draper← B. Cadamarteri
60'
E. Ring← D. Jefferies
60'
E. Hamilton← J. Moylan
66'
E. Laird← T. Gardner-Hickman
66'
L. Dykes← A. May
70'
R. Hackett← B. House
72'
Reeco Hackett-FairchildMissed penalty
79'
L. Montsma← T. Darikwa
79'
K. Anderson↳ W. Willumsson
83'
M. Leonard← K. Anderson
85'
Tomoki Iwata

Possession

25%Lincoln

Shots

8Lincoln

Pass accuracy

41%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBirmingham
Overview
25%Possession75%
8Total Shots7
8Corners5
14Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots7
3On Target4
4Off Target1
1Blocked2
7Inside Box5
1Outside Box2
Passing
25%Possession75%
198Total Passes654
117Accurate Passes563
59%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 1–3 Birmingham

Birmingham beat Lincoln 3-1 in League One on October 19, 2024.

Goals: B. Cadamarteri (1'), K. Anderson (14', 79'), W. Willumsson (52').

Birmingham controlled possession (75%) and registered 7 shots to 8.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.