Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Birmingham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
K. Dowell 71' (pen)
3/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 36St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham55%
×Draw25%
Lincoln20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.63
Lincoln
0.87

Birmingham creates 87% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 156 away

creates per match

Birmingham
2.04
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Birmingham
0.48
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
80%
Birmingham or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
45%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
30%
Lincoln wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
80%
Birmingham 2+ goals
48%
Birmingham 3+ goals
22%
Lincoln 1+ goals
58%
Lincoln 2+ goals
22%
Lincoln 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
73%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Birmingham scores more
55%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
20%

Birmingham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
C. KlarerBirminghamBirmingham · D
7.9

Match Events

23'
Jay Stansfield
32'
Christoph Klarer
45+1'
Ryan Allsop
54'
W. Willumsson← K. Bielik
54'
K. Anderson← E. Hansson
64'
S. Clucas← T. Bayliss
64'
F. Draper← J. Collins
64'
R. Hackett← J. Makama
71'
A. May← J. Stansfield
71'
K. DowellPenalty
76'
J. Gardner← T. Darikwa
81'
T. Hamer← A. Jackson
85'
Conor McGrandles
88'
G. Hanley← K. Dowell

Possession

74%Birmingham

Shots

13Birmingham

Pass accuracy

59%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamLincoln
Overview
74%Possession26%
13Total Shots6
7Corners2
9Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots6
4On Target0
4Off Target2
5Blocked4
10Inside Box4
3Outside Box2
Passing
74%Possession26%
626Total Passes217
552Accurate Passes132
88%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Lincoln

Birmingham beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on March 8, 2025.

Goals: K. Dowell (71' pen).

Birmingham controlled possession (74%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in Birmingham.