Lincoln Red Imps FC 2–1 Larne: Result & Stats

Lincoln Red Imps FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Larne

Joe 42'

K. Gómez 23'

M. Lusty 15'

8/22/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsEstádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lincoln Red Imps FC37%

×Draw28%

Larne35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lincoln Red Imps FCExpected goals in this matchLarne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Lincoln Red Imps FC

1.23

Larne

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.36

2.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Lincoln Red Imps FC

1.00

Larne

0.36

allows per match

Lincoln Red Imps FC

2.00

Larne

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln Red Imps FC+0.00on par

Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln Red Imps FC ↓

Larne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw

65%

Lincoln Red Imps FC or Larne

72%

Draw or Larne

63%

Winning margin

Lincoln Red Imps FC wins by 2+

16%

Larne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1+ goals

71%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 2+ goals

35%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 3+ goals

13%

Larne 1+ goals

69%

Larne 2+ goals

33%

Larne 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln Red Imps FC (draw refunded)

52%

Larne (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln Red Imps FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Larne away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln Red Imps FC attack 1.00 + Larne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Larne attack 0.36 + Lincoln Red Imps FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lincoln Red Imps FC scores more

37%

level

28%

Larne scores more

35%

Lincoln Red Imps FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lincoln Red Imps FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

23'

26'

31'

42'

55'

64'

66'

Víctor Villacañas← K. Gómez

67'

Rafael Muñoz

74'

J. McEneff← S. Want

76'

B. Magee← M. Lusty

82'

M. Yahaya← Rafael Muñoz

82'

L. Casciaro← E. Britto

88'

N. Pozo← Toni García

90'

M. Glynn← D. Sloan

Lincoln4-3-3

Larne4-3-3

30

⚽

▼

Lusty

29

Ryan

11

Graham

25

▼

27

6

3

2

▼

18

23

1

1

5

15

▼

Muñoz

22

Torrilla

21

Nano

20

▼

Britto

6

Lopes

23

⚽

Joe

10

Barr

18

▼

García

9

⚽

▼

Gómez

Manager: Javi Muñoz

66'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼K. Gómez

82'▲M. Yahaya←▼Rafael Muñoz

82'▲L. Casciaro←▼E. Britto

88'▲N. Pozo←▼Toni García

Lincoln Red Imps FC substitutes

70Villacañas8Yahaya7Casciaro4Pozo25Smith33Burnet26Bent31Sciortino17Martín13López71Peacock11Valarino

Manager: T. Lynch

74'▲J. McEneff←▼S. Want

76'▲B. Magee←▼M. Lusty

90'▲M. Glynn←▼D. Sloan

Larne substitutes

16McEneff14Magee22Glynn5Altintop34Devlin36Graham9O'Neill7McKendry