Larne 3–1 Lincoln Red Imps FC: Result & Stats

Larne

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lincoln Red Imps FC

A. Ryan 83', 43' (pen), 30' (pen)

B. Lopes 20'

8/29/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsInver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Larne58%

×Draw23%

Lincoln Red Imps FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LarneExpected goals in this matchLincoln Red Imps FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.92

Larne

1.81

Lincoln Red Imps FC

0.92

Larne creates 97% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

0.92

creates per match

0.50

1.33

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Larne

0.92

Lincoln Red Imps FC

0.50

allows per match

Larne

1.33

Lincoln Red Imps FC

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne+0.00on par

Lincoln Red Imps FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Lincoln Red Imps FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Larne or draw

81%

Larne or Lincoln Red Imps FC

77%

Draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC

42%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+

33%

Lincoln Red Imps FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals

84%

Larne 2+ goals

54%

Larne 3+ goals

27%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1+ goals

60%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 2+ goals

23%

Lincoln Red Imps FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)

76%

Lincoln Red Imps FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Lincoln Red Imps FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 0.92 + Lincoln Red Imps FC defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lincoln Red Imps FC attack 0.50 + Larne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Larne scores more

58%

level

23%

Lincoln Red Imps FC scores more

19%

Larne at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

B. Lopes

30'

A. RyanPenalty

39'

Chris Gallagher

43'

A. RyanPenalty

46'

J. McEneff← C. Bolger

52'

Jordan McEneff

56'

M. Yahaya← G. Torrilla

59'

59'

66'

78'

81'

Víctor Villacañas← Toni García

83'

86'

90+2'

90+2'

Larne4-3-3

Lincoln4-3-3

10

Barr

18

▼

García

9

Gómez

23

Joe

6

⚽

Lopes

20

Britto

5

▼

Ayew

22

▼

15

21

1

1

3

18

▼

2

23

27

6

25

11

29

⚽3

▼

Ryan

30

▼

Lusty

Manager: T. Lynch

46'▲J. McEneff←▼C. Bolger

78'▲B. Magee←▼M. Lusty

90+2'▲O. Devlin←▼A. Ryan

Larne substitutes

16McEneff14Magee34Devlin7McKendry8Randall36Graham22Glynn9O'Neill

Manager: Javi Muñoz

56'▲M. Yahaya←▼G. Torrilla

81'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Toni García

86'▲L. Casciaro←▼I. Ayew

Lincoln Red Imps FC substitutes

8Yahaya70Villacañas7Casciaro4Pozo11Valarino25Smith19Clinton13López31Sciortino17Martín33Burnet26Bent

Match Recap: Larne vs Lincoln Red Imps FC

Larne beat Lincoln Red Imps FC 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 29, 2024.

Goals: B. Lopes (20'), A. Ryan (30' pen, 43' pen, 83').

The match was played at Inver Park in Larne.

Larne vs Lincoln Red Imps FC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Larne vs Lincoln Red Imps FC