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Linares Unido vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Linares Unido
Linares Unido
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
8/10/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Tucapel Bustamante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Linares Unido43%
×Draw26%
Lautaro de Buin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Unido
1.44
Lautaro de Buin
1.19

Linares Unido creates 21% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 58 away

creates per match

Linares Unido
1.35
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

Linares Unido
1.29
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

Linares Unido+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Unido ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Linares Unido or draw
69%
Linares Unido or Lautaro de Buin
74%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
57%

Winning margin

Linares Unido wins by 2+
21%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Linares Unido 1+ goals
76%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
42%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
18%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
70%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
33%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Linares Unido (draw refunded)
58%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Unido at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Unido attack 1.35 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Linares Unido defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Linares Unido scores more
43%
level
26%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
31%

Linares Unido at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Linares Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linares Unido vs Lautaro de Buin

Lautaro de Buin beat Linares Unido 1-0 in Segunda División on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Tucapel Bustamante in Linares.