Lautaro de Buin 1–1 Linares Unido: Result & Stats

Lautaro de Buin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Linares Unido

7/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Lautaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Lautaro de Buin44%

×Draw26%

Linares Unido30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchLinares Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

Lautaro de Buin

1.45

Linares Unido

1.16

Lautaro de Buin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 55 away

1.63

creates per match

1.07

1.25

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.63

Linares Unido

1.07

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.25

Linares Unido

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Linares Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

70%

Lautaro de Buin or Linares Unido

74%

Draw or Linares Unido

56%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

21%

Linares Unido wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

77%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

42%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

18%

Linares Unido 1+ goals

69%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

32%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

59%

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

44%

level

26%

Linares Unido scores more

30%

Lautaro de Buin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff