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Linares Unido vs Independiente — Segunda División 2020

Linares Unido
Linares Unido
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente
Independiente
1/20/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 20Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Linares Unido42%
×Draw26%
Independiente33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Unido
1.45
Independiente
1.25

Linares Unido creates 16% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

creates per match

Linares Unido
1.35
Independiente
1.21

allows per match

Linares Unido
1.29
Independiente
1.55

finishing

Linares Unido+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Unido ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Linares Unido or draw
67%
Linares Unido or Independiente
74%
Draw or Independiente
58%

Winning margin

Linares Unido wins by 2+
20%
Independiente wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Linares Unido 1+ goals
77%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
42%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
18%
Independiente 1+ goals
71%
Independiente 2+ goals
36%
Independiente 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Linares Unido (draw refunded)
56%
Independiente (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Unido at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Unido attack 1.35 + Independiente defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Independiente attack 1.21 + Linares Unido defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Linares Unido scores more
42%
level
26%
Independiente scores more
33%

Linares Unido at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linares Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linares Unido vs Independiente

Linares Unido and Independiente drew 0-0 in Segunda División on January 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.