Independiente 1–1 Linares Unido: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Unido

10/27/2020

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Independiente39%

×Draw27%

Linares Unido34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchLinares Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Independiente

1.27

Linares Unido

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 55 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Independiente

1.27

Linares Unido

1.07

allows per match

Independiente

1.27

Linares Unido

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par

Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Linares Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

66%

Independiente or Linares Unido

73%

Draw or Linares Unido

61%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

17%

Linares Unido wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

72%

Independiente 2+ goals

36%

Independiente 3+ goals

14%

Linares Unido 1+ goals

69%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

33%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

53%

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independiente scores more

39%

level

27%

Linares Unido scores more

34%

Independiente at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff