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Linares Unido vs Deportes Valdivia — Segunda División 2020

Linares Unido
Linares Unido
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
3/18/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Tucapel Bustamante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Linares Unido41%
×Draw26%
Deportes Valdivia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Unido
1.38
Deportes Valdivia
1.20

Linares Unido creates 15% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 35 away

creates per match

Linares Unido
1.35
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

allows per match

Linares Unido
1.29
Deportes Valdivia
1.40

finishing

Linares Unido+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Unido ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Linares Unido or draw
67%
Linares Unido or Deportes Valdivia
74%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
59%

Winning margin

Linares Unido wins by 2+
19%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Linares Unido 1+ goals
75%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
40%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
16%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
70%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
34%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Linares Unido (draw refunded)
56%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Unido at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Unido attack 1.35 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + Linares Unido defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Linares Unido scores more
41%
level
26%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
33%

Linares Unido at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Linares Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linares Unido vs Deportes Valdivia

Deportes Valdivia beat Linares Unido 2-1 in Segunda División on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Tucapel Bustamante in Linares.