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Deportes Valdivia vs Linares Unido — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Linares Unido
Linares Unido
7/29/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Félix Gallardo de Valdivia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Valdivia41%
×Draw28%
Linares Unido31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.29
Linares Unido
1.08

Deportes Valdivia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 55 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.31
Linares Unido
1.07

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.09
Linares Unido
1.27

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Linares Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
69%
Deportes Valdivia or Linares Unido
72%
Draw or Linares Unido
59%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
19%
Linares Unido wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
72%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
37%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
14%
Linares Unido 1+ goals
66%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
29%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
57%
Linares Unido (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
41%
level
28%
Linares Unido scores more
31%

Deportes Valdivia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportes Valdivia 2–1 Linares Unido

Deportes Valdivia beat Linares Unido 2-1 in Segunda División on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Gallardo de Valdivia in Valdivia.