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Linares Deportivo vs FC Andorra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Andorra
FC Andorra
3/16/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linares Deportivo41%
×Draw28%
FC Andorra31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.30
FC Andorra
1.09

Linares Deportivo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
1.18
FC Andorra
1.42

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.76
FC Andorra
1.42

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

FC Andorra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
69%
Linares Deportivo or FC Andorra
72%
Draw or FC Andorra
59%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
19%
FC Andorra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
73%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
37%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
14%
FC Andorra 1+ goals
66%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
30%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
57%
FC Andorra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.18 + FC Andorra defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

FC Andorra attack 1.42 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
41%
level
28%
FC Andorra scores more
31%

Linares Deportivo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Linares Deportivo 3 – 1 FC Andorra

Linares Deportivo beat FC Andorra 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.