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FC Andorra vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
8/29/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Andorra58%
×Draw23%
Linares Deportivo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.81
Linares Deportivo
0.91

FC Andorra creates 99% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.79
Linares Deportivo
1.24

allows per match

FC Andorra
0.58
Linares Deportivo
1.82

finishing

FC Andorra+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
81%
FC Andorra or Linares Deportivo
77%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
42%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
34%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
84%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
54%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
27%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
60%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
23%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
76%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.79 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Linares Deportivo attack 1.24 + FC Andorra defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Andorra scores more
58%
level
23%
Linares Deportivo scores more
19%

FC Andorra at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Andorra vs Linares Deportivo

FC Andorra beat Linares Deportivo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.