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Linares Deportivo vs El Palo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Palo
El Palo
Sergio Diaz 51'
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo65%
×Draw23%
El Palo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.72
El Palo
0.60

Linares Deportivo creates 187% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
2.07
El Palo
0.87

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.33
El Palo
1.38

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
El Palo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

El Palo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
87%
Linares Deportivo or El Palo
77%
Draw or El Palo
35%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
37%
El Palo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
82%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
51%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
25%
El Palo 1+ goals
45%
El Palo 2+ goals
12%
El Palo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
84%
El Palo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

El Palo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + El Palo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

El Palo attack 0.87 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
65%
level
23%
El Palo scores more
13%

Linares Deportivo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
Sergio Diaz
54'
Isra← Iván Aguilar
54'
Pablo González← Jonathan Rosales
56'
Óscar Lozano← Balta
63'
Borjita← Jorge Durán
67'
Rosendo Alarcon← Cervera
75'
Pepe Capitán← José Cazorla
Linares
El
Manolo Reina
Reina
Lulú
Lulú
Nacho Aranda
Aranda
Salvi Ramírez
Ramírez
Jorge Durán
▼
Durán
Toni Medina
Medina
José Cazorla
▼
Cazorla
Pablo Roca
Roca
Javi López
López
Sergio Diaz
⚽
Diaz
Balta
▼
Balta
R. Brimah
Brimah
Josema
Josema
Dani Espejo
Espejo
Miguelito
Miguelito
Anaba
Anaba
Cervera
▼
Cervera
Jonathan Rosales
▼
Rosales
Rodri
Rodri
A. Araiza
Araiza
Joan Grasa
Grasa
Iván Aguilar
▼
Aguilar
Juan Arsenal
Manager: Juan Arsenal
54'▲Isra←▼Iván Aguilar
54'▲Pablo González←▼Jonathan Rosales
67'▲Rosendo Alarcon←▼Cervera

Linares Deportivo substitutes

IsraGonzálezAlarcon
Funes
Manager: Funes
56'▲Óscar Lozano←▼Balta
63'▲Borjita←▼Jorge Durán
75'▲Pepe Capitán←▼José Cazorla

El Palo substitutes

LozanoBorjitaCapitán

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Linares Deportivo 0–1 El Palo

El Palo beat Linares Deportivo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 8, 2020.

Goals: Sergio Diaz (51').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.