El Palo 0–1 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

El Palo

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Linares Deportivo

Rosendo Alarcon 21'

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio San Ignacio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

El Palo27%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PaloExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.57

El Palo

1.13

Linares Deportivo

1.57

Linares Deportivo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

2.07

1.08

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

El Palo

1.46

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

El Palo

1.08

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palo+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palo ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

El Palo or draw

53%

El Palo or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

73%

Winning margin

El Palo wins by 2+

11%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

El Palo 1+ goals

68%

El Palo 2+ goals

31%

El Palo 3+ goals

11%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

79%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

46%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

El Palo (draw refunded)

37%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palo attack 1.46 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.13

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + El Palo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

El Palo scores more

27%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

47%

Linares Deportivo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Rosendo Alarcon

60'

Jorge Pina← Pablo Roca

62'

Isra← Cervera

82'

J. Duarte← Lulú

82'

Toni Medina← Jorge Durán

82'

Silverio Quijada← Sergio

86'

Pablo González← A. Araiza

Linares

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Funes

60'▲Jorge Pina←▼Pablo Roca

82'▲J. Duarte←▼Lulú

82'▲Toni Medina←▼Jorge Durán

El Palo substitutes

PinaDuarteMedina

Manager: Juan Arsenal

62'▲Isra←▼Cervera

82'▲Silverio Quijada←▼Sergio

86'▲Pablo González←▼A. Araiza

Linares Deportivo substitutes

IsraQuijadaGonzález

Match Recap: El Palo vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat El Palo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 27, 2019.

Goals: Rosendo Alarcon (21').

The match was played at Estadio San Ignacio in Málaga.

El Palo vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: El Palo vs Linares Deportivo