Linares Deportivo 4–0 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Linares Deportivo

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Pablo González 85'

Rosendo Alarcon 48' (pen), 38', 17'

10/31/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo62%

×Draw23%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Torredonjimeno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.74

Linares Deportivo

1.76

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

0.74

Linares Deportivo creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

2.07

creates per match

1.16

0.33

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

2.07

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.16

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

0.33

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

85%

Linares Deportivo or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

77%

Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

38%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

35%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

83%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

52%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

26%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

52%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

17%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

80%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

62%

level

23%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

15%

Linares Deportivo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Rosendo Alarcon

28'

Chico← Michael Conejero

38'

Rosendo Alarcon

48'

Rosendo AlarconPenalty

50'

Paco Anguita← Juanma Olivares

58'

Fran Carnicer← Fran Lara

72'

Pablo González← Dani Espejo

74'

Mario Pérez← Álvaro Lozano

78'

Cervera← Rodri

85'

Pablo González

Linares

Ciudad

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: Juan Arsenal

58'▲Fran Carnicer←▼Fran Lara

72'▲Pablo González←▼Dani Espejo

78'▲Cervera←▼Rodri

Linares Deportivo substitutes

CarnicerGonzálezCervera

Manager: Manuel Chumilla

28'▲Chico←▼Michael Conejero

50'▲Paco Anguita←▼Juanma Olivares

74'▲Mario Pérez←▼Álvaro Lozano

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno substitutes

ChicoAnguitaPérez

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Linares Deportivo beat Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 31, 2019.

Goals: Rosendo Alarcon (17', 38', 48' pen), Pablo González (85').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.

Linares Deportivo vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno