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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
CANC
00:00
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno32%
×Draw25%
Linares Deportivo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.28
Linares Deportivo
1.53

Linares Deportivo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Linares Deportivo
2.07

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Linares Deportivo
0.79

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
57%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Linares Deportivo
75%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
68%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
14%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
72%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
37%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
14%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
78%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
45%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
43%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.28

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
32%
level
25%
Linares Deportivo scores more
43%

Linares Deportivo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Linares Deportivo — Match Preview

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno face Linares Deportivo on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno host Linares Deportivo at Estadio Matías Prats.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.