Linares Deportivo 2–1 Atlético Porcuna

Linares Deportivo

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Porcuna

Iván Aguilar 67'

Isra 17'

Sergio Ortiz 87'

9/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linares Deportivo66%

×Draw21%

Atlético Porcuna12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linares DeportivoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Porcuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.66

Linares Deportivo

1.88

Atlético Porcuna

0.66

Linares Deportivo creates 185% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

2.07

creates per match

0.99

0.33

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Linares Deportivo

2.07

Atlético Porcuna

0.99

allows per match

Linares Deportivo

0.33

Atlético Porcuna

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

Atlético Porcuna →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw

88%

Linares Deportivo or Atlético Porcuna

79%

Draw or Atlético Porcuna

34%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

40%

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

85%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

56%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

29%

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

48%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

14%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

84%

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more

66%

level

21%

Atlético Porcuna scores more

12%

Linares Deportivo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Isra

54'

Sergio← Cervera

60'

Joan Grasa← Rosendo Alarcon

67'

Iván Aguilar

73'

Manu Tejero← Eulogio Vico

73'

Manuel Rodríguez← Chiqui

75'

José Uceda← Javi Cañada

76'

Fran Carnicer← A. Araiza

87'

Sergio Ortiz

Linares

Atlético

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Juan Arsenal

54'▲Sergio←▼Cervera

60'▲Joan Grasa←▼Rosendo Alarcon

76'▲Fran Carnicer←▼A. Araiza

Linares Deportivo substitutes

SergioGrasaCarnicer

Manager: Fernando Campos

73'▲Manu Tejero←▼Eulogio Vico

73'▲Manuel Rodríguez←▼Chiqui

75'▲José Uceda←▼Javi Cañada

Atlético Porcuna substitutes

TejeroRodríguezUceda

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Linares Deportivo 2–1 Atlético Porcuna

Linares Deportivo beat Atlético Porcuna 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 22, 2019.

Goals: Isra (17'), Iván Aguilar (67'), Sergio Ortiz (87').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.

Linares Deportivo vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Linares Deportivo 2–1 Atlético Porcuna