Atlético Porcuna 0–2 Linares Deportivo

Atlético Porcuna

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Deportivo

Cervera 80'

Fran Lara 66'

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 24Estadio Municipal San Benito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Porcuna24%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PorcunaExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.65

Atlético Porcuna

1.04

Linares Deportivo

1.65

Linares Deportivo creates 59% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

2.07

1.24

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.29

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Atlético Porcuna

1.24

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Porcuna ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Porcuna or draw

48%

Atlético Porcuna or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

76%

Winning margin

Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

81%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

49%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)

32%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Porcuna at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Porcuna attack 1.29 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Porcuna scores more

24%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

52%

Linares Deportivo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Xanet← Adria Sabater

53'

Sergio← Dani Espejo

62'

Gershon Villalta← Carrillo

63'

Iván Aguilar← Fran Carnicer

66'

Fran Lara

77'

José Uceda← Javi Cañada

80'

Cervera

81'

Pablo González← Rosendo Alarcon

Atlético

Linares

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roger

46'▲Xanet←▼Adria Sabater

62'▲Gershon Villalta←▼Carrillo

77'▲José Uceda←▼Javi Cañada

Atlético Porcuna substitutes

XanetVillaltaUceda

Manager: Juan Arsenal

53'▲Sergio←▼Dani Espejo

63'▲Iván Aguilar←▼Fran Carnicer

81'▲Pablo González←▼Rosendo Alarcon

Linares Deportivo substitutes

SergioAguilarGonzález