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Linares Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
10/8/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Municipal de Linarejos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Linares Deportivo43%
×Draw30%
AD Ceuta FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Deportivo
1.19
AD Ceuta FC
0.88

Linares Deportivo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Linares Deportivo
1.18
AD Ceuta FC
1.00

allows per match

Linares Deportivo
0.76
AD Ceuta FC
1.21

finishing

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Deportivo ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Linares Deportivo or draw
73%
Linares Deportivo or AD Ceuta FC
70%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
57%

Winning margin

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
19%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
33%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
12%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
59%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
22%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
61%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Deportivo attack 1.18 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Linares Deportivo scores more
43%
level
30%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
27%

Linares Deportivo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC

Linares Deportivo beat AD Ceuta FC 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.