Linares Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Linares Deportivo46%
AD Ceuta FC28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Linares Deportivo creates 34% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Linares Deportivo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Linares Deportivo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches
AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Linares Deportivo attack 1.53 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45
AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Linares Deportivo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Tenerife
Celta de Vigo II
Zamora
Ponferradina
Pontevedra
Barakaldo
Real Madrid II
Unionistas de Salamanca
Lugo
Mérida AD
Arenas Getxo
Racing Ferrol
Athletic Club II
Cacereño
Real Avilés
Ourense CF
CF Talavera
Guadalajara
Osasuna II
ArenteiroIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Linares Deportivo host AD Ceuta FC on Sunday, 11 December 2022 at 11:00. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Linares Deportivo vs AD Ceuta FC
Linares Deportivo and AD Ceuta FC drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 11, 2022.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Linarejos in Linares.