Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Limon FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limon FC
Limon FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
9/19/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 11Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Limon FC54%
×Draw23%
Futbol Consultants Moravia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limon FC
1.85
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.15

Limon FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 124 away

creates per match

Limon FC
2.06
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

Limon FC
1.13
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

Limon FC+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limon FC ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Limon FC or draw
76%
Limon FC or Futbol Consultants Moravia
77%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
46%

Winning margin

Limon FC wins by 2+
30%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Limon FC 1+ goals
84%
Limon FC 2+ goals
55%
Limon FC 3+ goals
28%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
68%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
32%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Limon FC (draw refunded)
69%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limon FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limon FC attack 2.06 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.85

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Limon FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Limon FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
24%

Limon FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Limon FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia

Limon FC beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós in Limón.