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Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
CANC
21:00
Limon FC
Limon FC
3/23/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia35%
×Draw25%
Limon FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.36
Limon FC
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 16 away

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.53
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.27
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw
60%
Futbol Consultants Moravia or Limon FC
75%
Draw or Limon FC
65%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
16%
Limon FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
74%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
39%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
16%
Limon FC 1+ goals
77%
Limon FC 2+ goals
43%
Limon FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
46%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.36

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
35%
level
25%
Limon FC scores more
40%

Limon FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Futbol Consultants Moravia host Limon FC

March 23, 2022: Futbol Consultants Moravia take on Limon FC in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.