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Limon FC vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limon FC
Limon FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
3/12/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 13Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Limon FC48%
×Draw23%
Escorpiones Belén29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limon FC
1.79
Escorpiones Belén
1.36

Limon FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 87 away

creates per match

Limon FC
2.06
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Limon FC
1.13
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Limon FC+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limon FC ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Limon FC or draw
71%
Limon FC or Escorpiones Belén
77%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
52%

Winning margin

Limon FC wins by 2+
26%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Limon FC 1+ goals
83%
Limon FC 2+ goals
53%
Limon FC 3+ goals
26%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
74%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
39%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Limon FC (draw refunded)
62%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limon FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limon FC attack 2.06 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.79

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Limon FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Limon FC scores more
48%
level
23%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
29%

Limon FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Limon FC 3–1 Escorpiones Belén

Limon FC beat Escorpiones Belén 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós in Limón.