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Escorpiones Belén vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Limon FC
Limon FC
1/29/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 4Polideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Escorpiones Belén42%
×Draw23%
Limon FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.78
Limon FC
1.60

Escorpiones Belén creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 16 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
65%
Escorpiones Belén or Limon FC
77%
Draw or Limon FC
58%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
22%
Limon FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
83%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
53%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
26%
Limon FC 1+ goals
80%
Limon FC 2+ goals
47%
Limon FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
55%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
42%
level
23%
Limon FC scores more
35%

Escorpiones Belén at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escorpiones Belén vs Limon FC

Escorpiones Belén beat Limon FC 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Bélen in San Antonio de Belén.