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Limon FC vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limon FC
Limon FC
CANC
21:00
Barrio México
Barrio México
3/20/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Limon FC48%
×Draw24%
Barrio México28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limon FC
1.72
Barrio México
1.27

Limon FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 43 away

creates per match

Limon FC
2.06
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Limon FC
1.13
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Limon FC+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limon FC ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Limon FC or draw
72%
Limon FC or Barrio México
76%
Draw or Barrio México
52%

Winning margin

Limon FC wins by 2+
26%
Barrio México wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Limon FC 1+ goals
82%
Limon FC 2+ goals
51%
Limon FC 3+ goals
25%
Barrio México 1+ goals
72%
Barrio México 2+ goals
36%
Barrio México 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Limon FC (draw refunded)
63%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limon FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limon FC attack 2.06 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.72

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Limon FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Limon FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Barrio México scores more
28%

Limon FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Limon FC host Barrio México

March 20, 2022: Limon FC take on Barrio México in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.