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Barrio México vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
CANC
21:00
Limon FC
Limon FC
2/4/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Barrio México46%
×Draw24%
Limon FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.64
Limon FC
1.25

Barrio México creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.09
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Barrio México
0.80
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
71%
Barrio México or Limon FC
76%
Draw or Limon FC
54%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
24%
Limon FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
81%
Barrio México 2+ goals
49%
Barrio México 3+ goals
23%
Limon FC 1+ goals
71%
Limon FC 2+ goals
36%
Limon FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
61%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.09 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Barrio México defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barrio México scores more
46%
level
24%
Limon FC scores more
29%

Barrio México at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barrio México vs Limon FC — Match Preview

Barrio México face Limon FC on February 4, 2022 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.