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Limón Black Star vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Antioquia
Antioquia
3/9/2025Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 11Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Limón Black Star49%
×Draw24%
Antioquia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limón Black Star
1.74
Antioquia
1.23

Limón Black Star creates 41% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 32 away

creates per match

Limón Black Star
1.54
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

Limón Black Star
1.29
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

Limón Black Star+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limón Black Star ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Limón Black Star or draw
73%
Limón Black Star or Antioquia
76%
Draw or Antioquia
51%

Winning margin

Limón Black Star wins by 2+
27%
Antioquia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Limón Black Star 1+ goals
82%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
52%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
25%
Antioquia 1+ goals
71%
Antioquia 2+ goals
35%
Antioquia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
65%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limón Black Star at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limón Black Star attack 1.54 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.74

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Limón Black Star defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Limón Black Star scores more
49%
level
24%
Antioquia scores more
27%

Limón Black Star at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Limón Black Star 2–1 Antioquia

Limón Black Star beat Antioquia 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar in Guápiles.