Antioquia 3–2 Limón Black Star: Result & Stats

Antioquia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Limón Black Star

1/27/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Carlos Alvarado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia34%

×Draw25%

Limón Black Star41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntioquiaExpected goals in this matchLimón Black Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.48

Antioquia

1.34

Limón Black Star

1.48

Limón Black Star creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 36 away

1.47

creates per match

1.33

1.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Antioquia

1.47

Limón Black Star

1.33

allows per match

Antioquia

1.63

Limón Black Star

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par

Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Limón Black Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw

59%

Antioquia or Limón Black Star

75%

Draw or Limón Black Star

66%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+

15%

Limón Black Star wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals

74%

Antioquia 2+ goals

39%

Antioquia 3+ goals

15%

Limón Black Star 1+ goals

77%

Limón Black Star 2+ goals

43%

Limón Black Star 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)

46%

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Antioquia scores more

34%

level

25%

Limón Black Star scores more

41%

Limón Black Star at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff