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Limerick vs Drogheda United — First Division 2019

Limerick
Limerick
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Drogheda United
Drogheda United
7/19/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 21Markets Field (Limerick)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limerick34%
×Draw24%
Drogheda United42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limerick
1.41
Drogheda United
1.60

Drogheda United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

creates per match

Limerick
1.57
Drogheda United
2.13

allows per match

Limerick
1.07
Drogheda United
1.25

finishing

Limerick+0.00on par
Drogheda United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limerick ↓

Drogheda United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Limerick or draw
58%
Limerick or Drogheda United
76%
Draw or Drogheda United
66%

Winning margin

Limerick wins by 2+
15%
Drogheda United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Limerick 1+ goals
76%
Limerick 2+ goals
41%
Limerick 3+ goals
17%
Drogheda United 1+ goals
80%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
47%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Limerick (draw refunded)
45%
Drogheda United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limerick at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limerick attack 1.57 + Drogheda United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Drogheda United attack 2.13 + Limerick defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Limerick scores more
34%
level
24%
Drogheda United scores more
42%

Drogheda United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Limerick 1–4 Drogheda United

Drogheda United beat Limerick 4-1 in First Division on July 19, 2019.

The match was played at Markets Field (Limerick).