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Drogheda United vs Limerick — First Division 2019

Drogheda United
Drogheda United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Limerick
Limerick
5/10/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 12Hunky Dorys Park (Drogheda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Drogheda United64%
×Draw20%
Limerick16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drogheda United
2.15
Limerick
0.97

Drogheda United creates 122% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Drogheda United
2.30
Limerick
0.85

allows per match

Drogheda United
1.09
Limerick
2.00

finishing

Drogheda United+0.00on par
Limerick+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drogheda United ↓

Limerick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Drogheda United or draw
84%
Drogheda United or Limerick
80%
Draw or Limerick
36%

Winning margin

Drogheda United wins by 2+
40%
Limerick wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Drogheda United 1+ goals
88%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
63%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
36%
Limerick 1+ goals
62%
Limerick 2+ goals
25%
Limerick 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Drogheda United (draw refunded)
80%
Limerick (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drogheda United at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Limerick away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drogheda United attack 2.30 + Limerick defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Limerick attack 0.85 + Drogheda United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Drogheda United scores more
64%
level
20%
Limerick scores more
16%

Drogheda United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Drogheda United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Drogheda United 3–2 Limerick

Drogheda United beat Limerick 3-2 in First Division on May 10, 2019.

The match was played at Hunky Dorys Park (Drogheda).