Limerick 3–4 Cobh Ramblers: Result & Stats

Limerick

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Cobh Ramblers

7/26/2019

First Division · Round 22Markets Field (Limerick)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limerick49%

×Draw25%

Cobh Ramblers27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LimerickExpected goals in this matchCobh Ramblers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.15

Limerick

1.64

Cobh Ramblers

1.15

Limerick creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 120 away

1.57

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Limerick

1.57

Cobh Ramblers

1.23

allows per match

Limerick

1.07

Cobh Ramblers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Limerick+0.00on par

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limerick ↓

Cobh Ramblers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Limerick or draw

73%

Limerick or Cobh Ramblers

75%

Draw or Cobh Ramblers

51%

Winning margin

Limerick wins by 2+

26%

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Limerick 1+ goals

81%

Limerick 2+ goals

49%

Limerick 3+ goals

23%

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

68%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

32%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Limerick (draw refunded)

65%

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limerick at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limerick attack 1.57 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.23 + Limerick defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Limerick scores more

49%

level

25%

Cobh Ramblers scores more

27%

Limerick at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Limerick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff