Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cobh Ramblers vs Limerick — First Division 2019

Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Limerick
Limerick
5/18/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 13St. Coleman's Park (Cobh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cobh Ramblers51%
×Draw24%
Limerick25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobh Ramblers
1.73
Limerick
1.14

Cobh Ramblers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cobh Ramblers
1.47
Limerick
0.85

allows per match

Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Limerick
2.00

finishing

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par
Limerick+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobh Ramblers ↓

Limerick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cobh Ramblers or draw
75%
Cobh Ramblers or Limerick
76%
Draw or Limerick
49%

Winning margin

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+
28%
Limerick wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals
82%
Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals
52%
Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals
25%
Limerick 1+ goals
68%
Limerick 2+ goals
32%
Limerick 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)
67%
Limerick (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobh Ramblers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 118 matches

Limerick away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.47 + Limerick defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Limerick attack 0.85 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cobh Ramblers scores more
51%
level
24%
Limerick scores more
25%

Cobh Ramblers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cobh Ramblers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Cobh Ramblers 2–3 Limerick

Limerick beat Cobh Ramblers 3-2 in First Division on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at St. Coleman's Park (Cobh).