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Limerick vs Bray Wanderers — First Division 2019

Limerick
Limerick
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
5/3/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 11Markets Field (Limerick)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limerick45%
×Draw26%
Bray Wanderers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limerick
1.49
Bray Wanderers
1.16

Limerick creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 121 away

creates per match

Limerick
1.57
Bray Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Limerick
1.07
Bray Wanderers
1.41

finishing

Limerick+0.00on par
Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limerick ↓

Bray Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Limerick or draw
70%
Limerick or Bray Wanderers
74%
Draw or Bray Wanderers
55%

Winning margin

Limerick wins by 2+
22%
Bray Wanderers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Limerick 1+ goals
77%
Limerick 2+ goals
44%
Limerick 3+ goals
19%
Bray Wanderers 1+ goals
69%
Bray Wanderers 2+ goals
32%
Bray Wanderers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Limerick (draw refunded)
60%
Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limerick at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Bray Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limerick attack 1.57 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bray Wanderers attack 1.24 + Limerick defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Limerick scores more
45%
level
26%
Bray Wanderers scores more
30%

Limerick at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Limerick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Limerick vs Bray Wanderers

Limerick beat Bray Wanderers 1-0 in First Division on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at Markets Field (Limerick).