Bray Wanderers 2–0 Limerick: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Limerick

3/1/2019

First Division · Round 2Carlisle Grounds (Bray)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bray Wanderers55%

×Draw23%

Limerick22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchLimerick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.07

Bray Wanderers

1.85

Limerick

1.07

Bray Wanderers creates 73% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 13 away

1.70

creates per match

0.85

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.70

Limerick

0.85

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.29

Limerick

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Limerick+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Limerick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

78%

Bray Wanderers or Limerick

77%

Draw or Limerick

45%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

32%

Limerick wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

84%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

55%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

28%

Limerick 1+ goals

66%

Limerick 2+ goals

29%

Limerick 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

72%

Limerick (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.29 · 123 matches

Limerick away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.70 + Limerick defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Limerick attack 0.85 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

55%

level

23%

Limerick scores more

22%

Bray Wanderers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff