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Lime Hall Academy vs Humble Lions — Premier League 2019

Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Humble Lions
Humble Lions
12/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy24%
×Draw24%
Humble Lions52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lime Hall Academy
1.10
Humble Lions
1.71

Humble Lions creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 74 away

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy
0.69
Humble Lions
0.95

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy
2.46
Humble Lions
1.51

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par
Humble Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Humble Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw
48%
Lime Hall Academy or Humble Lions
76%
Draw or Humble Lions
76%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
9%
Humble Lions wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
67%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
30%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
10%
Humble Lions 1+ goals
82%
Humble Lions 2+ goals
51%
Humble Lions 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
32%
Humble Lions (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Humble Lions away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Humble Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.10

Humble Lions attack 0.95 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more
24%
level
24%
Humble Lions scores more
52%

Humble Lions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Humble Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lime Hall Academy vs Humble Lions

Humble Lions beat Lime Hall Academy 1-0 in Premier League on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Drax Hall Sports Complex in Saint Ann's Bay.