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Humble Lions vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Humble Lions
Humble Lions
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
3/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Humble Lions67%
×Draw20%
Lime Hall Academy12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humble Lions
1.98
Lime Hall Academy
0.71

Humble Lions creates 179% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

creates per match

Humble Lions
1.10
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Humble Lions
1.04
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Humble Lions+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humble Lions ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Humble Lions or draw
88%
Humble Lions or Lime Hall Academy
80%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
33%

Winning margin

Humble Lions wins by 2+
42%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Humble Lions 1+ goals
86%
Humble Lions 2+ goals
59%
Humble Lions 3+ goals
31%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
51%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
16%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Humble Lions (draw refunded)
84%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humble Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humble Lions attack 1.10 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.98

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Humble Lions scores more
67%
level
20%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
12%

Humble Lions at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Humble Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Humble Lions 6–0 Lime Hall Academy

Humble Lions beat Lime Hall Academy 6-0 in Premier League on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.