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Lime Hall Academy vs Cavalier — Premier League 2019

Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cavalier
Cavalier
11/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lime Hall Academy15%
×Draw21%
Cavalier64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lime Hall Academy
0.81
Cavalier
1.94

Cavalier creates 140% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 106 away

creates per match

Lime Hall Academy
0.69
Cavalier
1.43

allows per match

Lime Hall Academy
2.46
Cavalier
0.93

finishing

Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par
Cavalier+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lime Hall Academy ↓

Cavalier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lime Hall Academy or draw
36%
Lime Hall Academy or Cavalier
79%
Draw or Cavalier
85%

Winning margin

Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
4%
Cavalier wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
56%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
19%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
5%
Cavalier 1+ goals
86%
Cavalier 2+ goals
58%
Cavalier 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
19%
Cavalier (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lime Hall Academy at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Cavalier away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.69 + Cavalier defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Cavalier attack 1.43 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lime Hall Academy scores more
15%
level
21%
Cavalier scores more
64%

Cavalier at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lime Hall Academy vs Cavalier

Lime Hall Academy and Cavalier drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Drax Hall Sports Complex in Saint Ann's Bay.