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Cavalier vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Cavalier
Cavalier
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
2/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cavalier73%
×Draw17%
Lime Hall Academy10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cavalier
2.25
Lime Hall Academy
0.67

Cavalier creates 236% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 13 away

creates per match

Cavalier
1.66
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Cavalier
0.96
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw
90%
Cavalier or Lime Hall Academy
83%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
27%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+
49%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals
89%
Cavalier 2+ goals
65%
Cavalier 3+ goals
39%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
49%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
15%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)
88%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Cavalier scores more
73%
level
17%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
10%

Cavalier at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cavalier vs Lime Hall Academy

Cavalier beat Lime Hall Academy 4-0 in Premier League on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.