Limavady United 3–0 Dundela: Result & Stats

Limavady United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dundela

L. Tosh 90'

A. Mullan 76'

J. Butcher 14'

9/16/2025

League #407 · Round 7The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Limavady United48%

×Draw24%

Dundela28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Limavady UnitedExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.27

Limavady United

1.74

Dundela

1.27

Limavady United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.22

creates per match

1.26

1.28

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Limavady United

1.22

Dundela

1.26

allows per match

Limavady United

1.28

Dundela

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw

72%

Limavady United or Dundela

76%

Draw or Dundela

52%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+

26%

Dundela wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals

82%

Limavady United 2+ goals

52%

Limavady United 3+ goals

25%

Dundela 1+ goals

72%

Dundela 2+ goals

36%

Dundela 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)

63%

Dundela (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.22 + Dundela defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dundela attack 1.26 + Limavady United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Limavady United scores more

48%

level

24%

Dundela scores more

28%

Limavady United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Butcher

76'

A. Mullan

90'

L. Tosh

Limavady

Dundela

Manager: P. Owens

Manager: S. Gourley