Dundela 1–1 Limavady United: Result & Stats

Dundela

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Limavady United

2/27/2026

League #407 · Round 30Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dundela25%

×Draw21%

Limavady United53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundelaExpected goals in this matchLimavady United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.05

Dundela

1.35

Limavady United

2.05

Limavady United creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.58

creates per match

1.94

2.16

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Dundela

1.58

Limavady United

1.94

allows per match

Dundela

2.16

Limavady United

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par

Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Limavady United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dundela or draw

47%

Dundela or Limavady United

79%

Draw or Limavady United

75%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+

11%

Limavady United wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals

74%

Dundela 2+ goals

39%

Dundela 3+ goals

15%

Limavady United 1+ goals

87%

Limavady United 2+ goals

61%

Limavady United 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)

32%

Limavady United (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Limavady United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.58 + Limavady United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Limavady United attack 1.94 + Dundela defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dundela scores more

25%

level

21%

Limavady United scores more

53%

Limavady United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff