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Lillestrom vs Viking — Eliteserien 2026

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
Preview
17:00
Viking
Viking
7/22/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11
Big match
38%
Viking
model favours
37%25%38%

Viking have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lillestrom37%
×Draw25%
Viking38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrom
1.46
Viking
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lillestrom
1.78
Viking
1.90

allows per match

Lillestrom
1.05
Viking
1.13

finishing

Lillestrom-0.28scores less
Viking+0.66scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Viking →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw
62%
Lillestrom or Viking
75%
Draw or Viking
63%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+
18%
Viking wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals
77%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
43%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
18%
Viking 1+ goals
77%
Viking 2+ goals
43%
Viking 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)
49%
Viking (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 6 matches

Viking away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.78 + Viking defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Viking attack 1.90 + Lillestrom defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lillestrom scores more
37%
level
25%
Viking scores more
38%

Viking at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Viking will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Lillestrom 4 vs Viking 2
  • Viking outscore their xG (2.6 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Lillestrom fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Lillestrom
Possession-dominant
Viking
Possession-dominant
56%Possession54%
82%Pass accuracy81%
13.7ShotsBiggest gap16.1
1.67xG1.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LillestromViking

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Lillestrom
0
Draws
6
Viking
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
1–44–11–30–23–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lillestrom
WWWLL
Viking
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lillestrom face Viking (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Lillestrom hosting Viking. Match starts July 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.