Lillestrom 1–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

T. Olsen 36'

5/27/2021

Eliteserien · Round 5Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Lillestrom55%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.18

Lillestrom

1.94

ODD Ballklubb

1.18

Lillestrom creates 64% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

1.65

creates per match

0.98

1.37

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.65

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.37

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

77%

Lillestrom or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

45%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

32%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

86%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

58%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

30%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

69%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

33%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

70%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 22 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.65 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Lillestrom defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lillestrom scores more

55%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

23%

Lillestrom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

I. Mathew

Lillestrom · M

7.7

Match Events

36'

T. Olsen↳ G. Åsen

45'

Gilli Sørensen

61'

Espen Bjornsen Garnas

62'

C. Wallem← T. Lauritsen

62'

K. Larsen← S. Svendsen

77'

E. Edh← D. Gustafsson

77'

F. Krogstad← K. Kairinen

81'

Mushaga Bakenga

84'

J. Braut-Brunes← U. Mathisen

84'

P. Helland← T. Olsen

89'

O. Ugwuadu← M. Lekven

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromODD

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots7

5Corners3

20Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots7

2On Target1

5Off Target3

5Blocked3

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

326Total Passes479

235Accurate Passes391

72%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb

Lillestrom beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 27, 2021.

Goals: T. Olsen (36').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (59%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.

Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb