Lillestrom 0–3 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

Daniel Alexander Pedersen 66' (OG)

Steffen Hagen 47'

Torgeir Børven 2' (pen)

5/19/2019

Eliteserien · Round 9Åråsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Lillestrom56%

×Draw22%

ODD Ballklubb22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.16

Lillestrom

1.98

ODD Ballklubb

1.16

Lillestrom creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.74

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.74

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.33

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.11scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

78%

Lillestrom or ODD Ballklubb

78%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

44%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

33%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

86%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

59%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

31%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

69%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

32%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

72%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.74 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Lillestrom defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lillestrom scores more

56%

level

22%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

22%

Lillestrom at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Steffen Hagen

ODD Ballklubb · D

8.5

Match Events

2'

Torgeir BørvenPenalty

18'

Sheriff Sinyan← Frode Kippe

46'

Aleksander Melgalvis← Kristoffer Odemarksbakken

46'

Odin Luras Bjortuft← Fredrik Berge

47'

Steffen Hagen↳ Elbasan Rashani

54'

Arnór Smárason

66'

Daniel Alexander PedersenOwn goal

72'

Moses Ebiye← Arnór Smárason

84'

Tobias Lauritsen← Fredrik Jensen

89'

Filip Moller Delaveris← Sander Svendsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromODD

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots10

3Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots10

1On Target5

5Off Target4

4Blocked1

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

376Total Passes416

262Accurate Passes325

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 0–3 ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Lillestrom 3-0 in Eliteserien on May 19, 2019.

Goals: Torgeir Børven (2' pen), Steffen Hagen (47'), Daniel Alexander Pedersen (66' o.g.).

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Åråsen in Lillestrom.

Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 0–3 ODD Ballklubb