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Lillestrom vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2018

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
4/28/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Lillestrom48%
×Draw24%
Ham-Kam27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrom
1.67
Ham-Kam
1.20

Lillestrom creates 39% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 65 away

creates per match

Lillestrom
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.15

allows per match

Lillestrom
1.25
Ham-Kam
1.86

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par
Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw
73%
Lillestrom or Ham-Kam
76%
Draw or Ham-Kam
52%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+
26%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals
81%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
50%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
23%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
70%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
34%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)
64%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.47 + Ham-Kam defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ham-Kam attack 1.15 + Lillestrom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lillestrom scores more
48%
level
24%
Ham-Kam scores more
27%

Lillestrom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 1–1 Ham-Kam

Lillestrom and Ham-Kam drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller.