Ham-Kam 5–0 Lillestrom: Result & Stats

Ham-Kam

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Lillestrom

B. Bjarnason 88'

V. Kongsro 45+2', 11'

M. Mawa 33'

M. Ofkir 16'

9/21/2024

Eliteserien · Round 23Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ham-Kam45%

×Draw25%

Lillestrom30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ham-KamExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.25

Ham-Kam

1.57

Lillestrom

1.25

Ham-Kam creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 89 away

1.39

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ham-Kam

1.39

Lillestrom

1.22

allows per match

Ham-Kam

1.29

Lillestrom

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw

70%

Ham-Kam or Lillestrom

75%

Draw or Lillestrom

55%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

23%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

79%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

46%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

21%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

71%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

36%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

60%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.75 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.39 + Lillestrom defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lillestrom attack 1.22 + Ham-Kam defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ham-Kam scores more

45%

level

25%

Lillestrom scores more

30%

Ham-Kam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ham-Kam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

V. Kongsro

Ham-Kam · D

9.5

Match Events

11'

V. Kongsro↳ V. Jónsson

16'

M. Ofkir

24'

Frederik Elkær

25'

S. Strand Nilsen← V. Jónsson

33'

M. Mawa↳ L. Mares

45+2'

V. Kongsro↳ M. Ofkir

46'

Mohanad Jeahze← F. Elkær

46'

Vá← M. Lundemo

59'

Moctar Diop

70'

H. Udahl← M. Mawa

70'

K. Onsrud← M. Johnsgård

70'

B. Bjarnason← F. Sjølstad

73'

Tore Andre Soras

74'

G. Åsen← M. Karlsbakk

74'

E. Kitolano← M. Diop

81'

P. Kirkevold← M. Ofkir

87'

K. Krygård← S. Foss

88'

B. Bjarnason

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ham-KamLillestrom

Overview

40%Possession60%

25Total Shots19

3.25Expected Goals (xG)2.50

5Corners7

8Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots19

9On Target3

10Off Target12

6Blocked4

17Inside Box14

8Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

324Total Passes480

240Accurate Passes400

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom

Ham-Kam beat Lillestrom 5-0 in Eliteserien on September 21, 2024.

Goals: V. Kongsro (11', 45+2'), M. Ofkir (16'), M. Mawa (33'), B. Bjarnason (88').

Lillestrom controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 25.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.

Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom