Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad: Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom

Preview

17:15

Fredrikstad

8/30/2026

Eliteserien · Round 19

Big match

50%

Lillestrom

model favours

50%24%26%

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Lillestrom50%

×Draw24%

Fredrikstad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.20

Lillestrom

1.75

Fredrikstad

1.20

Lillestrom creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

1.83

creates per match

1.11

1.28

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.83

Fredrikstad

1.11

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.28

Fredrikstad

1.66

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less

Fredrikstad-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

74%

Lillestrom or Fredrikstad

76%

Draw or Fredrikstad

50%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

27%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

83%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

52%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

25%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

70%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

34%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

66%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.28 · 19 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.66 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.83 + Fredrikstad defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fredrikstad attack 1.11 + Lillestrom defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lillestrom scores more

50%

level

24%

Fredrikstad scores more

26%

Lillestrom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
44% of Lillestrom’s goals come after the 75th minute
Fredrikstad win just 17% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
25% of Lillestrom’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.